Public specimen

From the road · 31 July 2026.

Independent-distributor field check. Friday, July 31, 2026. House notes. Not a recommendation.

Memory still the dominant story. Analog and passives converting from signals to spot. House notes of a dated independent-distributor channel check covering memory, analog, and MLCCs.

Memory

• No end in sight. 2027–28 expected worse. Some customers deliberately sitting out until early 2027.
• Chinese buyers on synchronized fiscal calendars: budgets exhausted, Western buyers absorbing temporary supply. Re-acceleration risk in the next 60–90 days.
• DDR5 server: 64 GB about $3,000–3,500; 32 GB about $2,400; 128 GB constrained but not 2× the 64 GB.

Analog · FPGA

Convergence with 2022 is starting: lead times out, decommits, price letters. TI is the #1 requested name. STMicro 90 nm nodes 30→52 weeks. FPGA the longest-running active category.

MLCCs

Early stages: large orders from bellwether customers. Focus on Murata + Samsung; also tantalum and polymer caps. No evidence of near-term relief; 2027–28 still the consensus peak-pain window.

House synthesis of a dated independent-distributor field check. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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